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Meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center expect Tropical Storm Beryl to regain hurricane status in the next few hours. In addition, meteorologists expect the storm’s circulation center to make landfall on the Central Texas coast in the next 24 to 36 hours. The expected landfall location is near Matagorda Bay. According to the latest update from the Hurricane Center, Beryl is expected to cross the coast as a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

While the storm won’t be nearly as dangerous as it was last week when it ripped through the Caribbean as a Category 5 storm, it will pose some dangers for people near where the eye makes landfall. Here in Louisiana, we’ll be less concerned about the wind with Beryl and more concerned about the water.

Above is the current forecast graphic of Beryl’s expected path. As you can see, the center of the storm is expected to pass just west of Houston on Monday and Tuesday. This position will create a flooding situation on the Louisiana coast for interests in Cameron Parish. It would be wise to assume that coastal interests in Vermilion, Iberia, St. Mary, and other Louisiana parishes are aware of the changing surf conditions.

By the way, if you have friends or family or perhaps are spending time at a beach in Lower Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, please be aware of beach conditions there as well. Distant hurricanes can cause dangerous surf. The National Weather Service Office in Mobile has issued this graphic as a warning for swimmers planning to enter the water over the next few days.

How much rain will Beryl bring to Louisiana?

So far, meteorologists can only offer general estimates of how much rain the storm might bring ashore. The reason meteorologists can be “specific” is because of the nature of tropical storms and the way rainbands form as they spiral out from the center of circulation.

Sometimes these rain bands can “move” over the same area for hours, causing localized flooding. Such scenarios are possible with storms beginning later today in southeast Texas and moving into southwest Louisiana this evening.

The good news for Louisiana is that the rainfall amounts forecast for Beryl have been scaled back significantly from Saturday’s forecast. The bottom line is that most coastal Louisiana will be windy and rainy Sunday night through Monday and Tuesday.

Conditions should return to a more seasonal pattern by midweek, with a significant risk of showers and thunderstorms still present each afternoon through next weekend.

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What comes after Beryl?

The next storm to be named will be Debby. The good news is that as of this morning, there doesn’t appear to be an area of ​​disturbed weather or tropical wave on the map that could claim that name. The current NHC forecast is for no tropical development for the next seven days. Of course, that’s subject to change and revision.

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Gallery Credit: Bruce Mikells